Reality Check: Global Warming

     In engineering, it is often very difficult to clearly define the forces on a particular piece of machinery. To evaluate the integrity of a design in the early stages, it is necessary to make general assumptions about load cases and operating conditions. Even when all of the loads are known exactly, it is frequently very difficult to analyze accurately because of the complexity of the mechanism or the shapes of the components.
     When faced with overwhelming complexity and uncertainty, engineers do what is called a 'Reality Check'.
     Take the most grossly oversimplified case imaginable just to get an idea of the correct order of magnitude of the problem.
     Here is a reality check for Global Warming. This is not intended to be a comprehensive treatment, just a 'reality check' to establish the order of magnitude of the problem. I used Wikipedia's 'Greenhouse Effect' as a reference. All of the 'assumed' values are credited and footnoted there.
     The Black Body Temperature of the Earth is 5.5 degrees C. Based on black body radiation, the mean temperature of the Earth should be -19 degrees C. Instead, it is +14 degrees C. Broadly generalizing, the net Greenhouse Effect causes global warming of 33 degrees C.
     Carbon Dioxide makes up approximately 10% of the total greenhouse gases. Therefore, Carbon Dioxide contributes to global warming of about 3.3 degrees C.
     Pre-industrial Carbon Dioxide content (from ice cores) is about 300PPM (parts per million). The maximum levels of Carbon Dioxide have been measured at about 383PPM. Therefore, man's contribution to Carbon Dioxide production is about 83/383, or about 20%. That sounds like a lot, but wait!
     That 20% is 20% of 10% of the TOTAL greenhouse gases. Man's ENTIRE 'Carbon Footprint' is only 2/10 of 1% of total greenhouse gases (.002).
     0.002 x 33 degrees C = 0.006 degrees C.
     0.006 degrees C = 0.12 degrees F.
     If humans were completely removed from the planet, the global warming would decrease by 0.12 degrees F.
     NOW, how excited can you get about billions of dollars to produce a change that will be too small to even measure - a change that is no change at all.  Do you really want change?